Zoom Recording ID: 99439173462
UUID: 0dk4vTmyRO6hahGcUG+gWw==
Meeting Time: 2022-05-02 03:45:39pm
Cornell Institute for Digital Agriculture - Spring 2021 Seminar: Advancing One Health through digital agriculture
The
epidemic volatility index, a novel early warning tool for epidemic and
syndromic surveillance
Polychronis
Kostoulas
Associate
Professor, Epidemiology & Artificial Intelligence, Faculty
of Public & One Health, University of Thessaly, Greece
Abstract:
Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of
intervention strategies. The Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI) is a new,
conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is
based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per
day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a
threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to
demonstrate the use of EVI. Daily updated predictions for all world countries
and each of the United States of America revealed a consistent and stable
performance in terms of detecting the main COVID-19. From a One Health
perspective, the application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic
surveillance tasks, in combination with existing early warning systems, will
enhance our ability to act swiftly and efficiently control epidemics of
zoonotic potential.
Bio:
PK is an Associate Professor of
Epidemiology and Artificial Intelligence. His research focuses on (a) the use
of Bayesian Latent Class models for the evaluation of diagnostics, true
prevalence estimation, proof of disease freedom and (b) the development and
application of artificial intelligence tools in disease surveillance.
Background on the Cornell Institute
for Digital Agriculture:
An interdisciplinary
group of Cornell University faculty began meeting in early 2017 to formulate an
Initiative for Digital Agriculture, believing that Cornell is uniquely equipped
to lead in this emerging arena that will benefit the public for generations. We
define DA to mean the application of computational and information technologies
coupled with nanotechnology, biology, systems engineering and economics to both
the research and operational sides of agriculture and food production. With
approximately 100 faculty from 5 Cornell colleges participating, we are
collaborating with external stakeholders to shape and implement a research
agenda for DA that will build a pipeline of discovery and innovations for the
next 10+ years. Please contact Gabriela Cestero at gc423@cornell.edu with any questions.